I don't see any possible way (short of LBJ involved in some sort of Celtic Pride movie motivated kidnapping for a few weeks) that Heat don't go to the finals. But I'm seeing EC Final going a minimum of 6 and 7 wouldn't surprise me either.
This Pacers team will knock you on your ass. The Bulls team already showed a few times that's how to beat the Heat. And I think they will do that to Miami. You throw in the fact either no Wade or an injured Wade, this series will be way tougher for the Heat than what some may think. Indiana is pretty atrocious on the offensive end, I don't see them winning series but it'll be entertaining and close.